Leonardo Ideas can be systematically identified

Treating Science Fiction as case studies from a future history

# Hype Mining
 You could start looking for Leonardo Ideas from potentially impactful ideas that *felt* like they were in the adjacent possible in the past and precisely identify what constraints prevented them from existing.  
This takes advantage of criteria #1 from the fact that [[Leonardo Ideas can be systematically identified]] (*Would be impactful if existed.*)  and is depending on past excitement both as an indicator of impact and that the idea might be in the adjacent possible. People get excited about things that feel possible. 

**Practically, this could involves**
- Digging through old issues of publications that capture [[Hype Cycles]] like Wired and Popular Science.
- Reading through old journals.
- Talking to industry experts
**Ideas to Dig Into**
[[Why don’t we have ground effect vehicles?]]

                        

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# Profiles of the Future
![](BearImages/3AF85E19-256E-432F-8ED9-5248C51C4E0D-32352-0003C718CFA18B62/B3AD5E02-6D84-4CCD-A77A-E3C182461FF1.png)
![](BearImages/F7894145-686E-447B-AA23-421F5FFF301C-32352-0003C7225E9A1AF3/2178479B-354E-4786-A986-BAAE93CCAE06.png)
![](BearImages/714B73BE-CA2D-4C47-8E17-079D44D902D8-32352-0003C7322440B827/EC82CB86-A072-4972-AAF8-E84DE94A89B6.png)
Prophecy suffers from either failure of nerve of failures of imagination
![](BearImages/E35FC1A9-591B-4C93-8C84-34508D4A7E74-32352-0003C73F6A9ED672/7C0EB3A5-81E9-4217-8060-C2F8EBC0D976.png)
![](BearImages/E60CAEA4-1BAA-49CA-A1C2-CB730D68A58B-32352-0003C74580EB200B/A357479D-F24B-4DC8-B92C-ACA2AB74554D.png)
![](BearImages/133C0344-F854-4577-ABE6-4F34E218E8E0-32352-0003C749A1A65C83/C2A07CFA-A4F3-4977-AB90-293611DDEC0D.png)
![](BearImages/2B58FE03-126E-47F6-9CD0-49104B1E58F6-32352-0003C74E79EF0D77/6B6F446B-5E8A-4DA2-A603-44229FFF4D08.png)
![](BearImages/0B91E40C-0515-42B8-B5DF-05E27898C6D1-32352-0003C75B0908D945/60B1C1CF-D5E6-4139-B26E-579AFB076361.png)
![](BearImages/09CFF72C-6DA4-42CD-9805-965B4AB3D7B0-32352-0003C76E2E0B54CA/1B1C2AEB-FE85-4BD4-9E27-639FA56FCAC9.png)
![](BearImages/795AE3FA-A30D-4D26-BA90-C1A9BD549435-32352-0003C770ADB7A815/86D9CB4A-989E-4F24-A8EF-6F41B8725D25.png)
![](BearImages/0D8CB45B-4E9E-4CA0-B001-F9F67C02D618-32352-0003C7A737025E57/E44AA7A2-9B3C-4747-8822-0B5BA424CE3C.png)
![](BearImages/8CB0202E-0C42-4253-A351-FDD651E2A267-32352-0003C7B124A70412/F13CFC51-8C40-47F5-AD53-74F4A0521006.png)
![](BearImages/EC4255FA-F510-403C-A24C-B6E65453F765-32352-0003C7B94E710E67/CCB8FC97-3A44-4E42-9234-FA1A9FDC98B6.png)
![](BearImages/49FB9434-6B95-4AE2-AF98-07A9284ACD7E-32352-0003C7BDAC8C81E4/44B5B4C5-BF68-48DA-8AA2-DFF96904F80B.png)
![](BearImages/7BD7C504-6F16-4D30-9976-BB78561DF8F7-32352-0003C7C37964186D/C40DCF84-5960-4D3D-9486-C5E3B035B132.png)
![](BearImages/9D3CE0A0-890F-419E-BD91-CF3528A68603-32352-0003C7CE6131BDF4/204CFB41-F70E-48BB-9494-41A5A46B5B94.png)
![](BearImages/6874357E-0AF0-48C0-BF01-96A847701DA1-32352-0003C7D953CCF88B/7E5C22C0-1B78-4FC7-BB20-43E7F7246228.png)
![](BearImages/FD1D6E78-3E25-4F42-9918-5A31E9FBA972-32352-0003C7E34469DA30/AC50766B-D497-4913-ACC2-EFE70939FE57.png)
![](BearImages/3A79DCF2-0ADE-439B-8DE1-9524A358983A-32352-0003C842FB0EB239/DC23279C-DC33-4E9C-9826-F679A95D9B67.png)
![](BearImages/3DECA694-DACB-42C0-A49B-4299596AEF27-32352-0003C8B200A8B45A/93F50C94-CD42-4E02-9610-EFF0A1ABA2CB.png)
![](BearImages/6965CE29-F463-458E-9C13-121177B151A6-32352-0003C8BBA3F8EA29/58DE4E9A-CEEB-4EBB-AFC4-C6629355F2F7.png)
![](BearImages/CE30FA20-C623-4EFD-8629-D7DDBD706A6C-32352-0003C8DA2B8E7B98/B1957397-1B30-4E16-B9D0-7292098629DB.png)
![](BearImages/6303E428-DFE0-4985-A66C-07F0B2791762-32352-0003C8E77ED646BE/F6BBBAAF-3EA8-48A2-A1CD-8814DEE97E36.png)
![](BearImages/EEA7A076-3BCD-48B1-BB0E-22F1E7508507-32352-0003D32BD8328409/F343E3D4-C035-486E-8497-E48F38993616.png)
![](BearImages/C6ACCABD-F4B9-41A2-83D4-7BDD4D13CB0B-32352-0003D32F72D13927/9EFF5118-F084-437E-8178-C6383B3BE15A.png)
![](BearImages/57093C5E-048D-4133-BC64-1D28506FE60B-32352-0003D944772EE315/7743DF58-A506-438F-A3D2-2C3A191E41A6.png)
![](BearImages/263752C1-A5C3-4290-845D-1DD97D8ADC1E-89396-0003F3AB2E734AEB/955948F2-F7E9-4671-B4ED-7995F6219882.png)
![](BearImages/249C905D-A7B0-41F5-8A32-98B31D0BD877-89396-0003F3C5EA03B8B6/385CE371-724E-4C20-9C33-9677DE72C76B.png)
![](BearImages/7297B425-127F-4FEE-9806-13B72CC82148-89396-0003F40BBD6BFE2D/5E0C7097-FF9E-49D2-8FEA-D2226D544F9D.png)
![](BearImages/CBCB2225-89DB-468F-844A-67F1E633EC5B-89396-0003F41DC6BFF400/FFDCDCFD-FC20-4ED1-9D59-C503AD27921D.png)
![](BearImages/B621026C-7C64-48E2-8826-59E330B42D85-89396-0003F42C2F942592/8141F574-C63B-4C7A-8033-9367CE23EAB2.png)
![](BearImages/D0FBD6C3-892E-4298-A3FC-D5A016B6F861-89396-0003F433D50C5DD3/996B0772-280C-4B64-85D4-E06B2B8CD911.png)
![](BearImages/2F3C0596-0F7E-4742-88FD-61774AFB6645-89396-0003F446D19DF8AA/044D9AF9-050C-49CB-BDB1-673B4061FB12.png)
![](BearImages/D41D0AAF-475C-4E03-9E80-006FABFE28C3-89396-0003F46A5FFD5393/CA3FB52D-4B5D-4F73-818B-45F967493168.png)
![](BearImages/ADBCA11F-A0F4-4B17-B374-CE99D732D816-89396-0003F4F78DC432E2/5B329DCC-746F-45E6-BB28-BC51AB31AFE3.png)
![](BearImages/939BFBE5-212F-4773-8A09-CE4698D56A8C-89396-0003F50D3603975D/75314C83-A07D-40CD-9D00-CC9D53F67C7F.png)
![](BearImages/EBF2F748-F544-4878-8BCB-6A0F8B61ED99-89396-0003F57F5DC4A32C/678095F3-3630-4DD1-9745-96846FB2F1DE.png)
Arthur C Clark describes 2020
![](BearImages/A9425E0C-D8DB-4718-AFA0-CC8C69109F8E-89396-0003F5B9D773C616/95B82CE4-90F3-409D-AF79-056CE583F166.png)
![](BearImages/BA13F55D-9BEA-45A7-B950-AE264011C945-89396-0003F5BFC6C6645F/20F123A3-62A4-4EA0-89BB-9427ABA676E8.png)
![](BearImages/B138E9B9-02BD-420A-83E0-30EB00D54F20-89396-0003F5C96B8A33BD/D08E7BE0-E7A5-46C0-B2D7-822BC0D7241C.png)
![](BearImages/0661BE96-54EF-4A76-BFCF-5D09B5F7161F-89396-0003F5D26957FD3A/767BC8DF-15BE-4C94-B375-68A51D731AF3.png)
![](BearImages/86654F5B-731C-4E04-B8D6-8C520D32E8C7-89396-0003F640466FCBE2/D40E9AAC-0B33-4502-A109-52B770A7CD06.png)
For alexey
![](BearImages/19802079-5A6C-40A7-932A-BCF8F86D479D-89396-0003F64D7C11D021/64F2D8EF-291F-4D27-8C38-2C7AA01B3C30.png)

![](BearImages/6B210119-CA11-46ED-B706-5067989B82E0-89396-0003F65F60F98D8C/A714970E-C531-436D-9C9F-F953E4B9C108.png)
![](BearImages/BA52C2BF-5B1A-4968-BC53-4DB0E78AF9AB-89396-0003F66427EC4B81/A1F55F68-D9A8-466B-86D5-6652A940E586.png)

### Published
## Questions
- [[Why don’t we have ground effect vehicles?]]
## Thoughts
## Related
## Authors
- [[Arthur C. Clarke]]
## Link



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Hype Mining

Profiles of the Future

# Why don’t we have ground effect vehicles?



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Ben's working notes

Why don’t we have ground effect vehicles?

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