# Where else has Wright’s law applied? Where has it not applied when it should have?
# Where else has Wright’s law applied- Where has it not applied when it should have
[[Wright’s Law Predicted 109 Years of Auto Production Costs, and Now Tesla’s]]
           


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Observational technological phenomena

Where else has Wright’s law applied? Where has it not applied when it should have?

#  Wright’s Law Predicted 109 Years of Auto Production Costs, and Now Tesla’s
#  Wright’s Law Predicted 109 Years of Auto Production Costs, and Now Tesla’s

- Tesla reported gross margins 17.2%
	- These are not good
- Predicting that gross margins will get to >30% within 18 months of September 2019 (so mid 2021)
- This prediction is based on Wrights Law
- Wright’s Law plots cost declines as a factor of cumulative production
- Writes law says that there is a linear relationship between the % cost decline and doubling of units produced
- So every time you double the units, the cost will decrease by N%
- 100-%decrease in cost is the “learning curve”
- Model T’s from 1909 to 1923 had an 85% learning curve
- Claims that Model T has followed an 85% learning curve
- Cumulative doubling requires the total number of units ever produced to double
- Wrights law applies to ford in terms of $/hp 
[[Sam Korus]]
[[Ark Invest]]
References [[Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress]]
(https://ark-invest.com/research/wrights-law-predicts-teslas-gross-margin) 

                          

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