The tech tree model suggests that explicitly drawing out tech trees is important

Let’s make sure this isn’t a normative belief

  1. If you draw out the tech tree, you argue why working on a suboptimal technology might actually lead to amazing things in the future. The evolutionary analogy would be “Why should we keep around these little hairy mammal things?” (See: Studies on Slack - SSC)

  2. Good plans have several steps , Long term plans often involve decisions that look stupid over shorter time horizons

  3. Drawing out the tech tree enables you to explicitly see the state of different disciplines areas and constraints on them

  4. Drawing out tech trees makes unknowns explicit

  5. An explicitly drawn tech tree helps see what you could be doing that you aren’t doing instead of working on the immediate adjacency

  6. It biases work towards potentially more productive ends

At the end of the day this really does come down to a philosophical difference over whether you think that people can plan better than dumb chance. A definite worldview means you believe the universe is deterministic and Indefinite worldviews and definite worldviews enable exploration of different parts of idea space.

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