# The ARPA Model is high-variance The same mechanisms that enable an organization to move quickly and work on weird paradigm-shifting programs can also enable massive waste and fraud. The parallel stories of [[JCR Licklider]] and [[William Godel]] illustrate two sides of the sword. Both men were ARPA program managers in the 60’s. Both had precise, grand visions of technology that could change the world. Both had unmonitored access to funds once the DARPA director gave the ok. But while [[JCR Licklider]] helped midwife modern computing and computer science as a field, [[William Godel]] helped unleash ineffective chemical atrocity on Vietnam, laid the groundwork for the security state, and was arrested by the FBI and convicted for embezzlement. The experience of working with ARPA is also high variance. Both first and second-hand experience confirms that sometimes DARPA is an amazing partner and sometimes it is hair-tearingly frustrating because you expect [[JCR Licklider]] and you get something closer to a standard government bureaucracy. Perhaps here is a place where you could actually improve on the model with the modern ‘innovation’ of customer obsession - high quality programs depend on continued relationships with high quality performers, so being a pleasure to work with should be paramount. It is deeply uncomfortable to say, but I think this is just a case where [[You can’t cut off just one tail of a distribution]]. Any guard rails would slow down the process or constrain PMs, reducing both possible downsides and upsides. It is unsatisfying but the only solution that doesn’t kill the goose that lays the golden eggs is “culture and good people.” Everybody in an organization riffing on the ARPA model can look the potential downsides straight in the eye. “With great power comes great responsibility” is a great adage for program managers. ### Related * [[DARPA Program managers pull control and risk away from both researchers and directors]] * [[DARPA has a 5-10 percent program success rate]] * [[DARPA funds wacky things that go nowhere]] * [[Opacity is important to DARPA’s outlier success]] * [[The things that make “great talent” in high variance industries boils down to the ability to successfully make things happen under a lot of uncertainty]] * [[There are consistent strategies for success across high-variance domains]] <!-- #evergreen --> [Web URL for this note](http://notes.benjaminreinhardt.com/The+ARPA+Model+is+high-variance) [Comment on this note](http://via.hypothes.is/http://notes.benjaminreinhardt.com/The+ARPA+Model+is+high-variance)