# Tail risk and long term thinking are inherently tied because of the probabilities involved If you take enough samples from a distribution with a fat tail, you are guaranteed to sample something far out in the tail (as opposed to a thin tailed distribution where even in infinity the chances are zero.) Note that Tail Risks are *not* black swans. We know that they’re possibilities. ### Related [[The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper]] that lays out the risks for tail risks <!-- #stub --> [Web URL for this note](http://notes.benjaminreinhardt.com/Tail+risk+and+long+term+thinking+are+inherently+tied+because+of+the+probabilities+involved) [Comment on this note](http://via.hypothes.is/http://notes.benjaminreinhardt.com/Tail+risk+and+long+term+thinking+are+inherently+tied+because+of+the+probabilities+involved)