# Tail risk analysis should specify first, second, third order effects In the coronavirus the first order effects are people getting sick or dying of the virus The second order effects are shortages of PPE, people staying home, less travel The third order effects are economic impact, fighting over supplies ### Related * [[Tim Harford on Persuasion and Popular Economics]] specifically the idea of scenario planning. * [[What role does scenario planning have in technological program design?]] <!-- #stub --> [Web URL for this note](http://notes.benjaminreinhardt.com/Tail+risk+analysis+should+specify+first,+second,+third+order+effects) [Comment on this note](http://via.hypothes.is/http://notes.benjaminreinhardt.com/Tail+risk+analysis+should+specify+first,+second,+third+order+effects)