# Stagnation ### List of as atomic as possible stagnation theories 1. [[Low Hanging fruit theory of stagnation]] * Specifically: [[Progress getting exponentially harder should be the null hypothesis]] 2. [[Regulations slow down technological advancement]] 3. [[Universities have been pushed more towards applied research since the end of WWII]] which then means that academics have been pushed away from more long-term and genera work * This could be attributed to the peer review and citation system 4. [[The peer review and citation system incentivizes people to work on things that other people think is interesting]] * This could be attributed to more government funding * This could be attributed to 5. [[Embedded growth obligations have shifted the cultural narrative to the idea that everything can and needs to be a high-return investment]] 6. [[Exponential hardware does not lead to exponential software]] 7. [[Knowledge of how markets and innovation work has made us jaded]] 8. [[Research has become a commodity]] 9. [[The number of researchers has exploded]] 10. [[Successful professors are not necessarily the best researchers]] 11. [[Specialization in research and careers in general has cut off a lot of possible innovations]] * What is the rate of discovering new S-curves? How has that changed over time? * Are today’s S-curves, individually, developing faster or slower than before? * Are the steep parts as steep as they used to be? * Are they plateauing at a higher or lower level? * What is the distribution of these characteristics, over the set of all S-curves? From https://rootsofprogress.org/teasing-apart-the-s-curves * [[bhattacharyaStagnationScientificIncentives2020]] * [[Stagnation and Scientific Incentives argues against the low hanging fruit hypothesis by historical analogy]] * [[Low Hanging fruit theory of stagnation]] * [[There are three main theories of stagnation]] * [[bloomAreIdeasGetting2020]] * [[Notes on Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?]]