# Shadows of the Future Many people are implicitly or explicitly always asking the question “what future do these actions point towards?” both about themselves and others. They’re back-projecting the future. This flash-forward drives a shocking amount of behavior. These behavior-driving extrapolations are *Shadows of the Future*. People who want to work in the magazine industry take horrific unpaid internships because they can see a clear path to their dream job. Doctors suffer through something like 25 years of schooling and abuse because they know if they can power through they will be respected and well paid. People date MBA students because there’s a clear path towards them becoming a good partner. Brand-name organizations have an advantage hiring because people know that having that name on their resume will likely open future opportunities. ([[Organizations and people lend each other social capital]].) People *don’t* quit their job because they don’t know what they will do after and fear how people in the future will react to a blank spot. People are hesitant to take a role that will confuse people in the future, or work for a company that might die in a year or two. Shadows of the future is a nebulous term, but it especially applies to situations where people *don’t* do something because of its anticipated future repercussions. Most alternatives to existing institutions fail to address the shadows of the future. You get a grant that pays the rent for a few months, perhaps hire a contractor, buy some equipment, or do work that wouldn’t normally be funded in your university. Then what? You need to either land in an institution or get another grant. Either way, you need to tune work that you did on the grant to set you up for your next steps. You haven’t actually escaped institutional incentives at all. Almost tautologically, if you’re doing something that doesn’t fit into an existing institutional structure, it’s impossible to foresee a career doing that thing. The phenomenon is more subtle than “grants don’t help you know how you’ll pay rent when the grant runs out” (though that is an issue) — everything from status to the ability to the ability to have a family are coupled to legible career options. The evolution of starting a [[Grahamian Startup]] is illustrative. Before perhaps 2012, and certainly before the ’90s, starting a startup was both low-status and risky. Venture capital existed but the process of starting a company and scaling it was incredibly illegible. If you failed, people would look at the (now nonexistent) company on your resume and effectively see a blank spot. You would be straight up behind your peers who stayed in the tracked positions in both status and earning power. The shadows of the future weighed heavy on those who dared to start a startup. Now, starting a company is just as risky in terms of success rates but the process is more legible (thanks in large part to YC, but also a cultural shift), high status (“startup founder” is now a badge of pride), and there are many high status jobs (mostly at big Tech companies) where being a failed startup founder is not only a setback, but potentially even a boon. The shadows of the future have for the most part been lifted from starting a high-growth startup. As a result, starting a startup shifted from the domain of the weird and the outcasts to a perfectly acceptable career choice for MBAs, Ivy graduates, and others who by default have a bright future. This isn’t exactly an expected value calculation — you can’t quantify status, satisfaction etc. But it does tend to hinge on the ability to *visualize* success. Shadows of the future is in part why titles matter. Shadows of the future has a lot to do with status. [[People and organizations are all playing some game that has different ways of gaining status and power]] — stepping out of the game. This concept is from [[Michael Nielsen]] and [[Kanjun Qiu]] https://twitter.com/jpsenescence/status/1466179936427859968 ### Related * [[Asymmetric career risk]] * I suspect shadows of the future is often confused with [[Loss aversion]] * Staff scientists need career trajectories https://twitter.com/pdhsu/status/1436403822138572800?s=20 * [[People want to be able to live where they want and have a family]] * [[What are the alternatives to grants?]] [Web URL for this note](http://notes.benjaminreinhardt.com/Shadows+of+the+Future) [Comment on this note](http://via.hypothes.is/http://notes.benjaminreinhardt.com/Shadows+of+the+Future)