Reference class forecasting

# Reference class forecasting # Reference class forecasting Instead of forecasting based on what you think about a specific project try to see how different reference classes of things do it. Eg. Instead of estimating from first principles what it would cost to build a house of a certain size in a specific area, look at how much it costs to build a house of that size in a specific area.  [Web URL for this note](http://notes.benjaminreinhardt.com/Reference+class+forecasting) [Comment on this note](http://via.hypothes.is/http://notes.benjaminreinhardt.com/Reference+class+forecasting)