# Most predictions are not aiming for accuracy A perhaps more accurate (and charitable?) reason why [[Most predictions suck]] may be that the purpose of the predictions was not to be good predictions in the first place. This explanation would be more consistent with the principle that [[Most people are not malicious or stupid]]. So why would people make predictions if not to expose non-obvious ways that the world might change so that other people can take action on them? [^1][^2] One reason to speculate[^3] is attention. Echoing or riffing on a common opinion about the future is a great way to yell “hello world!” Putting on a contrarian hat and speculating that the common opinion is wrong can have the same effect. Attention-seeking speculation is closely tied to signaling group affiliation. Different groups hew to different narratives that you can enrich with speculation. As an illustration, imagine if I made predictions about a future where the US government builds recovered alien technology into next-generation military hardware. Another reason to speculate is to influence people or a process. Unlike in physics, if you can get enough people to believe that something is true, that thing can actually become true. [[Faith based on desire works in human systems]]. Real predictions can encourage people to fear or anticipate a specific set of outcomes and take action to prevent or encourage them. If you care more about the actions than predictive accuracy, speculation can often play the same role. Speculating to influence the future isn’t necessarily conscious or nefarious. Great ideas often start off as speculations! “What if …” The core of most “visions” is pure speculation. The only reason many companies and technologies exist is because speculation convinced people to give them enough time and money to make the speculation into a retroactively accurate prediction. It’s possible that the only reasons railroads and the internet were able to become utterly pervasive is because speculative predictions convinced investors and companies to try to make those speculations a reality. Of course, this is a gambit that can also fail. [[dancoAreFoundersAllowed2020]] Telling stories is also just plain fun and speculating is mostly telling stories about the future. So a lot of speculation is just a way of socializing and telling imagination-capturing stories to each other. What’s more interesting than a possibly true story about our own futures? The [[Robin Hanson]]-Ian analysis would also suggest that many people who are making predictions for non-predictive reasons may *think* that they are genuinely trying to make good predictions. It’s also important to note that even when people are making genuine attempts to create good predictions, they are probably *also* shooting for at least a couple of these other outcomes. When I predict something I certainly don’t mind getting attention for it, influencing how other people act, and having fun in the process. ### Related * [[A good prediction enables new thoughts and actions by being non-obvious and creating agency]] * [[Every good prediction should have a science fiction story attached]] [^1]:Note that [[It’s impossible to know what’s going on inside someone else’s head]] so at the end of the day this is speculation based on internal motivations I’ve had in the past. Perhaps they will ring true for you too. [^2]:Michael Crichton touches on some reasons briefly in [[Why speculate]] , but I think there’s more to dig into especially through the lens of “Hansonian analysis” and the proliferation of social media. [^3]:It’s pushing the word a bit, but “speculation” (predictions without firm evidence) seemed like the best term for predictions made for reasons other than accuracy. Other contenders were pseudo-prediction, unprediction. The choice between making up new words and appropriating old ones is a rock and a hard place. [Web URL for this note](http://notes.benjaminreinhardt.com/Most+predictions+are+not+aiming+for+accuracy) [Comment on this note](http://via.hypothes.is/http://notes.benjaminreinhardt.com/Most+predictions+are+not+aiming+for+accuracy)