# Good Simulations could be the ‘why now’ of roadmapping tools Simulations have gotten continuously better over the late 20th century and early 21st century both because of software and hardware.[^1] The world is massively parallel so the massively parallel computing has enabled better simulations. Games and movies have pushed the edge of the possible - increasing both capability and making better tooling. [[Gaming+animation has pushed simulation parallel to science+engineering and might be underutilized]]. Simulations have the unique ability to very precisely illustrate tools and processes that do not yet exist in a way that is both internally consistent and externally consistent. With simulations, you can *precisely* work backwards from a long-term goal technology. [[More precise descriptions of technology could enable faster progress]]. This “backwards propagation” can then be used to inform what you build starting with what is possible today. [[Good roadmaps work backwards from a goal]]. In a way this role is similar the one fulfilled by science fiction when you use it as a case study, or simply a precise vision of where a technology can go. [[Treating Science Fiction as case studies from a future history]]. However, simulations can actually illustrate known unknowns and make non-intuitive suggestions about which routes might be productive and which might be traps. Take molecular machines, for example. There is one camp that says “there’s no reason they shouldn’t work” but doesn’t give clear examples of what “working” would actually look like. There is another camp that says “that’s not how molecules work!” With that level of discourse the two groups inevitably just talk past one another which makes it hard for even a technically trained outside to evaluate their arguments. In a way it resembles the post-consensus political discourse. [[Post-consensus world]] If both groups could agree to the assumptions and methods behind a simulation, it would be possible to create more-or-less objective evidence for or against the feasibility of one plan or another. The simulations could then enable researchers (and ideally non-researchers! - see [[Foldit]] for a good example) to iterate on precise challenges. Of course there are challenges. [[It is hard to interface different simulations]], [[It is hard to know where a simulation diverges from reality]], and [[Simulations and models often fail to capture important aspects of a real system]] are only a few of them. Like any intellectual tool, simulations can be used well and poorly. People often claim that an idea works ‘in simulation’ without laying out the assumptions behind that simulation and without any connection to how it might be physically implemented. So this isn’t to say that simulations can address every problem right now. However, the space of problems that simulations can potentially unlock has significantly expanded in the past several years (as of 2020.) ### Related * [[Simulations]] [^1]: To be fair [[Simulations were among the first applications of digital computers]].