Five years is the greatest amount of time you can plan with accuracy

# Five years is the greatest amount of time you can plan with accuracy It’s a weirdly human timescale. Each level of school lasts about five years. It might be that it takes about five years to master something. The math works out: 50 weeks * 40 hrs a week * 5 years = 10,000 hrs A piece of anecdata to support this is that [[Superforecaster accuracy drops off drastically more than five years out]]. ### Related [[SMBC Eleven Lifetimes]] ### Reference This concept is from [[Freedman Dyson]] in …?  [Web URL for this note](http://notes.benjaminreinhardt.com/Five+years+is+the+greatest+amount+of+time+you+can+plan+with+accuracy) [Comment on this note](http://via.hypothes.is/http://notes.benjaminreinhardt.com/Five+years+is+the+greatest+amount+of+time+you+can+plan+with+accuracy)