In the context of Kurt Vonnegut story shapes, you need to have three ingredients.
Indefinite optimism is some combination of 1 and 3 (many times if you do well enough on 3 people will fill in 1 for you.) “We could get to X and we have successfully moved forward in the past.” This works well if experiments are cheap The value of planning is inversely proportional to the cost of experimenting and the trajectory is not going to have any massive dips during which people will cut and run.
IYI/Thinktanking is some combination of 1 and 2. This is the failure mode of definiteness - all plans and no action. Definiteness means that you have a long-term plan. One example of this is that NASA comes up with a 10 year plan every 8 years.
Most predictions suck because they only do 1.
This is why Elon Musk inspires people - he calls his shots.