§PARPA

You can create a program design discipline that enables better research and development

The distinction between areas, programs, and projects

The value of planning is inversely proportional to the cost of experimenting

Treating Science Fiction as case studies from a future history

Program design could be thought of as creating a causal graph of blockers and hypotheses about how to mitigate those blockers

Program design is a coordination tool

Program design is like creating the lego instruction book

Instead of planning not working as well as people in the past thought, as a society we’ve become worse at technological planning

How does money work in PARPA?

Workshops could be a way to start small building a private ARPA

Physical experiments are expensive

What role does scenario planning have in technological program design?

How do you measure real progress in research?

Maps help you figure out possibilities

Top of mind

There was a high return to technological roadmapping compared to not roadmapping in the past

Enabling Mission Impact - Funding Strategies for High-Risk High-Reward Innovation

An ontology around peoples attitudes competency and roles is important for program design

Explaining things like I’m five helps avoid the Einstellung Effect

An ARPA-like program could be the first step towards making general-purpose telerobotics inevitable

The tech tree model suggests that explicitly drawing out tech trees is important

Funding is path dependent and funding curves matter

Efficiency biases systems towards false negatives

A predictably successful idea is composed of known unknowns that that a team can execute against

What does a modified PARPA Heilmeier catachism look like?

The crux question of program design is when to commit

Planning to Start vs Planning to Finish

Say ‘X is more important than Y’ instead of ‘X is important’

What are the different kinds of bottlenecks?

There are two kinds of program design conversations — expansive and focused

The role of a visionary is to bootstrap the new from the old

Betting markets for research ideas could circumvent expert review killing ideas

Is there a way that python collab notebooks could be integrated into program design and roadmapping?

What is PARPA’s edge?

Roadmapping is related to the ability to create leading metrics for success

How do you think about the risk profile of PARPA programs?

Jim Matheson and Joshua Krieger conversation 14 Jul 2021

Hunting vs Farming Ideas

Work backwards with questions and work forward with answers

Joe Rollin conversation 10 May 2021

Precisely listing entrenched beliefs could be an important part of bottleneck analysis

Abstractly you want a good way of visualizing a bunch of chained vectors

Block Diagrams need to be in easily editable format

Geoff Anders conversation 7 Jun 2021

Geoff Anders conversation 9 Jun 2021

Getting people to talk about speculative research extensions is hard

Josh Greenberg Conversation 18 May 2021

Program design as a recursive response to the Heilmeier catechism

Roadmaps should have statements like “if we gain the ability to do X then we should do Y”

What are the pieces of a roadmapping architecture?

# §Program Design
- [[What are the goals of the program design process?]]]::needs work::
- [[Program design is like creating the lego instruction book]]
- [[Program design could be thought of as creating a causal graph of blockers and hypotheses about how to mitigate those blockers]]
- [[The crux question of program design is when to commit]]::needs work::

### Hypotheses
- [[The first step of roadmapping is frontier mapping]]
- [[A roadmapping framework may make the ARPA model more effective]]
- [[Talking to experts can expose bad equilibria, the moves necessary to get out of them, and considerations for doing them like cost constraints]]
- [[You can create a framework for talking to people that makes it easier to generate a roadmap]]
- [[You could build tools to make program design more efficacious]] 

### What are roadmaps
- [[What are the properties of maps?]]
- [[Roadmaps have two pieces - the map and the path]]
-  [[Roadmaps are a theoretical construct to escape inadequate equilibria]]
- [[List of Roadmapping Examples]]
-  [[Most roadmaps suck]]
	- [[Most roadmaps are not execution oriented]]

### Why Roadmapping
- [[Instead of planning not working as well as people in the past thought, as a society we’ve become worse at technological planning]]
- [[Roadmapping could be thought of as backwards-chaining together a series of conception-only heuretics]]
- [[Roadmaps can enable faster progress than blind exploration]]
- [[Technological roadmapping can give an idea of where technological evolution can go and how to get there]]
- [[A roadmapping framework may make the ARPA model more effective]]
- [[Program design is like performance debugging a vision]]
And of course we need to look at the possibility that this is all BS
- [[The roadmapping process is heavily context dependent and there may not be a generalized roadmapping process at all]]

### Building better roadmaps
- [[Design for roadmapping system]]
-  [[Person targeted questions for roadmapping]]
- [[What are the eight steps of Wigmore analysis translated to science?]]
- [[Technical Planning Principles]]
- [[Good roadmaps work backwards from a goal]]
- [[Good Simulations could be the ‘why now’ of roadmapping tools]]

### Glossary
- [[The distinction between areas, programs, and projects]]
- Bottlenecks -> Roadmap -> Execution
- Language
	- Binding Constraints
	- Affordances
	- Dependencies 
	- Project
	- Program
	- Area
	- Causal graph of blockers
- Steps
	- Frontier Mapping
	- Finding the right people
	- Comparing different paths
	- Goal setting
	- Finding serious contexts of use
	- Different institutional ‘moves’
	- Respectability cascades
	- Spending curves

### References
- [[And Suddenly the Inventor Appeared]]
- [[Wigmore Guide - Paper]]
- [[The trade-off: a central concept for biomimetics]]



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§ARPA model

There are a number of experiments that seem like they can only be done in the context of an organization

Why try to emulate DARPA and not Bell Labs

An Institute for Creative Technology - Riffing on ARPA

# ARPA Model Conclusions 
These come from [[§ARPA model]]

### Conclusions
- [[Anybody attempting to emulate DARPA needs to be willing to sit with a lot of discomfort for a long time]]
- [[You need to minimize actions that lead to short term glory if you want to emulate DARPA]]
- [[A private ARPA needs to work on things before they are sexy]]
- [[A private ARPA will not look like a normal fund or startup]]
- [[It is hard for a private ARPA to capture value without hamstringing impact]]
- [[Program and project management is important and valuable]]
- [[It is worthwhile and possible to riff on ARPA]]
- [[A DARPA emulation does not need to be a government organization]]
- [[A private ARPA requires new legal organization structures]]
- [[There is tension between starting small and the other pieces of the ARPA model]] 
::Not in analysis yet::
- [[PARPA needs to bootstrap a reputation]]

### Questions
- [[How does money work in PARPA?]]
- [[How do incentives work in PARPA?]]
	- [[Why will people become PARPA PMs?]]
- [[Is there a minimum effective budget to generate outlier results?]]
- [[PARPA will take a massive hit to effectiveness if it is a remote organizations]]

### Possible places to riff
- [[Program design could be done as a residence program]]
- [[Program design and execution could be decoupled]]
- [[The ARPA model may be able to utilize the internet for awesome]]
- [[A roadmapping framework may make the ARPA model more effective]]

## Related
- [[§PARPA]]



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§Program Design

ARPA Model Conclusions

# A roadmapping framework may make the ARPA model more effective


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Ben's working notes

A roadmapping framework may make the ARPA model more effective

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