# A good prediction enables new thoughts and actions by being non-obvious and creating agency A good prediction enables people to think thoughts they would not have thought before and ideally take action on them. To achieve this a prediction needs to be non-obvious and create agency. A good prediction is non-obvious. Obvious predictions won’t cause any new thoughts or shift any actions. Nobody cares if I predict the sun will come up tomorrow, or even that it will come up on this day five hundred years from now. Non-obvious predictions will usually be controversial or even heretical. [[Sci-fi conceits are Kuhnsian paradigm shifts]]. Predictions create agency in several ways. They can inspire you to take action, either to make the prediction come true or to make sure that it does not happen. They can give you the mental tools to extend the prediction and riff on it, forming your own opinion of the future. While it’s not absolutely necessary, precise predictions can help on both fronts. [[Legibility enables action]]. [[New mental models should suggest new actions]]. [[Precise communication enables other people to make decisions]]. [[Make precise predictions]]. Note that [[Most predictions suck]]. ### Related * [[More precise descriptions of technology could enable faster progress]] * [[Powerful precise writing can influence the future]] * [[Scientists, Engineers, and Economists have the tools to write Good science fiction]] <!-- #evergreen --> [Web URL for this note](http://notes.benjaminreinhardt.com/A+good+prediction+enables+new+thoughts+and+actions+by+being+non-obvious+and+creating+agency) [Comment on this note](http://via.hypothes.is/http://notes.benjaminreinhardt.com/A+good+prediction+enables+new+thoughts+and+actions+by+being+non-obvious+and+creating+agency)